Value Betting: Tilt the Odds in Your Favour

Believe it or not, bookmakers will offer odds on almost anything, always aiming to benefit themselves. Their business model ensures the odds are usually in their favour. Here at Tilt the Odds, we're dedicated to showing you when the bookmaker has the wrong odds and how you can tilt the odds in your favour.

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What is Value in Betting?

Value betting is about finding odds that are higher than they should be, given the true probability of an outcome. When you identify these opportunities, you're effectively betting against the bookmaker's advantage.

The Basics of Bookmaker Odds

Bookmakers try to ensure their odds guarantee a profit. Let's use a simple example: betting on the outcome of a coin toss in a cricket match. The fair odds for heads or tails should be Evens (1/1) because each side has an equal chance of landing. However, bookmakers might offer odds of 9/10. This means if two people each bet £10 on heads and tails, the bookmaker would pay out £9 to the winner and keep £10 from the loser, securing a guaranteed profit of £1.

Understanding the Over-round

The same principle applies to all events, including horse races. Let's say there's a horse race with four runners, each having an equal chance of winning. Fair odds would be 3/1 for each horse. If a bookmaker takes £10 bets on each horse, they would win £30 from the three losing bets and pay out £30 to the winner, breaking even.

However, bookmakers typically offer lower odds. For example, they might offer 2/1 instead of 3/1. Here's how to calculate the over-round (or book percentage):

1. Convert Odds to Percentages: For 3/1, the calculation is 1/3 + 1 = 1/4 = 25%. For 2/1, it’s 1/2 + 1 = 1/3 = 33.3%.
2. Sum the Percentages: For fair odds (3/1), it’s 25% + 25% + 25% + 25% = 100%. For bookmaker odds (2/1), it’s 33.3% + 33.3% + 33.3% + 33.3% = 133%.

A book percentage of 133% means the bookmaker will pay out £10 for every £13.33 taken in, ensuring a profit.

Identifying Value Bets

Value bets occur when the bookmaker's odds are higher than the true odds. For instance, in big events like the Grand National, the over-round might be as high as 160%, making it highly profitable for bookmakers.

However, in races with many runners, bookmakers may struggle to perfectly align odds with each horse's true winning chance. They rely on historical data, form, jockey performance, and other factors, which can lead to discrepancies.

How Tilt the Odds Helps

At Tilt the Odds, we identify when bookmakers have set the wrong odds. By leveraging our data and expertise, we help you find these value bets, giving you the edge to tilt the odds in your favour.